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We humans Oct 24, 2017 / Lidia Yuknavitch

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The truth is, suffering sucks and it can take you to a place of wanting to kill yourself, and there’s nothing beautiful about that. Suffering is not a state of grace. Suffering, from my point of view, is about a real place in a real body where you face the other side of living. How you choose to understand that story probably determines how you’re going to live the rest of your life.

I feel kindred with fellow sufferers, not because they suffer, and not because of some absurd vortex of victimhood camaraderie, and not because sufferers are in a state of grace, but because they go on, they endure. And because sometimes, the sufferer reinvents themself — and this kind of reinvention is what misfits are so good at. Misfits not only know a great deal about alternate and varied definitions of suffering, but misfits are also capable of alchemizing suffering, changing the energy from one form to another.

Here is the thing I want to say loudest of all: I haven’t transcended anything. No great revelation has come my way. I haven’t “moved on.”

So let me tell you a different suffering story that cannot be corralled by a culture that asks you to process your suffering in ways that make you a good citizen in an ever-churning economy of productive people. My daughter died the day she was born. I am not the only person who has experienced the suffering that comes from such a loss. But I am one of those who is willing to stand up, tell the story out loud, admit that I have carried that profound loss, that birth-death crisis, for more than thirty years now.

Here is the thing I want to say loudest of all: I haven’t transcended anything. No great revelation has come my way. I haven’t ascended into some magical wisdom. I haven’t “moved on.” At least not without her — my daughter I mean. And my suffering is not a state of grace. It’s just a part of me. Like my heart. When her birth-death first happened, here is what I did: I lost my marbles. It did not happen instantly.

At the hospital I could feel myself disintegrating a molecule at a time, but I didn’t say anything. I drank the water they gave me, though I didn’t eat the food. I held my swaddled lifeless daughter several times. I kissed her, I cradled her, I sang to her. I let the nurses give me a hot towel “bath” in the bed the second night, which remains on my list of top five most phenomenal physical experiences of my life. I thought I might be dead, but the heated wet towels reminded my skin that I was in fact alive, even if I was deadened.

It was my sister who brought me back to life, slowly, feeding me bits of saltine crackers to lure me back, and then one day an egg, and eventually, a milkshake. The milkshake made me smile.

Hence, the forecasting hypothesis is the following:


Convex (Non-linear) Relationship.

The relative forecasting accuracy increases, as we move forward in time, compared to the benchmark’s.


Linear Relationship.

The relative forecasting accuracy remains constant, as we move forward in time, compared to the benchmark’s.

The full sample starts in 1880 and ends in 2017, while the forecasted period f lies in between: \( T_{window + 1} \le f \le T_{end} \) , where \( T_{window + 1} \) refers to the first period in the sample after the model’s estimation window. As mentioned before, we use a rolling window with different time-lengths in order to examine the forecasting performance of emissions when more recent values are included in the training sample.

The time-length of the variable rolling window is selected from the following set N : \( N = \left\{ {30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100} \right\} \)

Hence, the output of this iterative procedure is a series of 1 step-ahead forecasts of \( T\_dts_{f,i} \) over the remaining observations. When N equals 30, the training sample is between 1880 and 1909 leaving the rest of the period until 2017 for forecasting. On the other hand when the maximum N = 100 is used, the training sample stops in 1979, allowing for a more recent sample only to be forecasted, compared with the first window.

To evaluate the forecasting performance of the four models produced by Eqs.( 5 ) and ( 6 ), we compare it with an appropriate ARIMA model that is used as a benchmark. Since the benchmark does not include emissions in its right hand side, it enables us to cross-compare the forecast accuracy of our models.

$$ \left( {1 - \varphi_{1} {\rm B} - \varphi_{2} {\rm B}^{2} - \varphi_{3} {\rm B}^{3} } \right)T\_dts_{f} = c + \left( {1 + \theta_{1} {\rm B} + \theta_{2} {\rm B}^{2} + \theta_{3} {\rm B}^{3} + \theta_{4} {\rm B}^{4} } \right)\, \in_{f} ,\quad \forall w $$

Stationarity and estimation results for the ARIMA model of Eq.( 7 )

Regarding the evaluation of the forecasting performance, we select an in-sample evaluation using the forecast error measures of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the scale invariant measure of Theil’s inequality coefficient (Theil IC), and an out-of-sample evaluation using the Diebold–Mariano statistics for equal predictive accuracy with the benchmark model.

$$ g_{1} (e_{w} ) = e_{j}^{2} \;\ \;g_{2} (e_{j} ) = \left| {e_{jw}^{{}} } \right|, $$
$$ H_{0} :E\left[ {g_{k,i} (e_{j} ) - g_{k,benchmark} (e_{j} )} \right] = 0,\quad \forall w $$
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Rolling forecasting procedure’s flowchart

The results from all stages, i.e., all previous rolling correlation, structural breaks, rolling regression and rolling forecasting, will enable us to identify the dynamics, if any, in the relationship between emissions and global temperature anomalies, throughout time.

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| May 2, 2016 | Public Relations | Teva Mens Terra Sandal Madang Blue k1LqZ2Awzw

What was called “arithmetic” in grammar school, “math” in high school, and “statistics” in college is called “data analytics” in business. Data analytics has become an increasingly important skill for public relations professionals and other creative professionals in business.

Competency in data analytics is already in high demand, and industry experts expect a significant shortage shortly of PR and marketers with superb data analytics skills. The well-documented aversion to math carries over from school to business.

PR and marketing executives surveyed by the USC Annenberg Center for Public Relations say analytics has joined a handful of vital skills PR skills. Most executives (89%) see writing as the most important skill for communicators, followed by strategic planning (84%), verbal communications (80%) and social media expertise (76%). However, almost two-thirds believe analytics is a required skill for PR pros.

Although PR executives are optimistic about the future, finding talent with those fundamental skills is now the industry’s biggest challenge. A major hurdle is that PR is not good at sourcing talent from outside its ranks. PR is turning more to research and analytics departments, as well as advertising and marketing, to find talent to fill its analytics needs.

Skills Shortage across the Board

Competition for data analytics may become more severe as other industries also face greater difficulties finding people with digital and data analytics skills.

The vast majority of companies in healthcare, retail, manufacturing and financial services are facing a digital skills gap, according to a new survey by The Economist Intelligence Unit . The survey of 422 Europe and US-based executives revealed that:

Four out of ten (41%) respondents rank cyber security and web development as the most important digital skills today. However, 43% believe big data will be the most critical under-supplied skillset in three years.

“Remarkably few executives in any of these industries feel they have the skills required to compete, thrive and win in a digital era,” said Adam Green, editor of the report. “At a time when digital disruption is upending entire industries like logistics and hospitality, this could be an existential issue rather than simply a question of maintaining or increasing market share. It is also affecting industries, like finance, whose business is firmly in the digital domain”.

Companies can improve the skills of their current workforce through digital training, create cross-functional teams to integrate digital across their businesses, and create organizational structures can become flatter and more adaptable, the research commissioned by Cognizant suggests.

Mickey’s first musical influence as a boy growing up in Ferriday, La., was his piano-pounding cousin, Jerry Lee Lewis. He grew up close to Jerry Lee and another famous cousin, Jimmy Swaggart, even as he snuck up to the windows of clubs to absorb the haunting sound of Louisiana rhythm-and-blues.

Mickey Gilley has achieved a remarkable 39 Top-Ten country hits, with 17 of those songs reaching the No. 1 spot on the country charts. In 1976, he swept the ACM Awards, hauling home trophies for Entertainer of the Year, Top Male Vocalist, Song of the Year, Single of the Year and Album of the Year. He was ranked among the top-fifty country music hitmakers in the 1989 book written by record research historian Joel Whitburn.

This is an all ages show with the music and food vendors starting at 5PM. Mickey Gilley takes the stage at 8PM and fireworks by Brilliant Skies will follow the show!

There is a parking fee of $5 with 50% proceeds going to L.A.M.B. Charity.

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Altered Fate Live at Blumenhof Winery
Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 12:00pm to 3:00pm
Blumenhof Winery

Altered Fate (Rock) will perform at Blumenhof Winery in Dutzow, MO on Saturday, August 20 from noon to 3pm.

Live Music at Riverwood Winery
Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 1:00pm to 4:00pm
Riverwood Winery

Uncork from your long week outside with a glass of wine and live music with JeffLux.

Casey Reeves at Chaumette
Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 1:00pm to 4:00pm
Chaumette Vineyard Winery
Live Music at Riverwood Winery
Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 1:00pm to 4:00pm
Riverwood Winery

Live Bluegrass Music outside on the lawn to compliment your wine experience. Event URL:

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Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm
Jowler Creek Winery
Acoustic Music in the Courtyard
Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 2:00pm to 5:00pm
Weston Wine Company
Midwest Wine and Brew Festival
Saturday, August 20, 2016 - 2:00pm to 5:00pm
The Lodge of Four Seasons

The Midwest Wine and Brew Festival is easily one of Missouri's most recognizable summer festivals.

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